SM调教所

Annual forum showcases state鈥檚 strengths and predicts job growth will continue to听outpace U.S. average. 鈥嬧��

If the Business Research Division鈥檚 2022 economic preview was about putting the 鈥渇ore!鈥� in forecast, 2023 is a hopeful study in how Colorado鈥檚 strengths can help it enjoy modest growth in the face of continued economic uncertainty.听

At the 2023 Business Economic Outlook Forum, the Business Research Division at the Leeds School of Business predicted 2 percent job growth for the upcoming year鈥攃omfortably besting the national average鈥攚ith nine of Colorado鈥檚 11 industry categories expected to see growth.听

鈥淟ast year, we said Colorado would be somewhere between the 10th and 15th strongest economies in the country,鈥� said Richard Wobbekind, associate dean for business and government relations at Leeds and BRD faculty director. 鈥淚f you put me on the spot, I鈥檇 say we鈥檒l be holding the same, in terms of overall economic performance, in 2023.鈥澨�

The annual forecast is created by BRD and the State of Colorado with the assistance of 130 leaders in business, who provide detailed predictions on their industries to help industry and government plan for the near future.听

A few highlights from the forecast:

• The story of the year was inflation. The story of next year will be鈥攊nflation. 鈥淏ut the high rate may have crested; we鈥檙e seeing a slowing of price growth,鈥� Wobbekind said. And while Colorado鈥檚 inflation tends to run higher than U.S. average, 鈥渨e could lead the country on the downside, based on home prices moderating more quickly than national numbers.鈥澨�
• Speaking of home prices: Financial activities and construction are projected to lose jobs in 2023, principally because of rising interest rates as the Fed aims to curb inflation. Inflation, instability and other challenges have created increased volatility, which has eroded corporate earnings. Commercial and residential real estate are a big part of those challenges, as the housing market slows and companies remain slow to embrace fully in-person work, especially in the Denver metro area. That will continue to shift, Wobbekind said, as companies look for innovations that allow them to allow for more effective flexibility.听

鈥淲e don鈥檛 think the future of office is all virtual,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 think remote work is always productive. And there are some partners and spouses who wish their significant others spent less time at home.鈥�

• Spending remains strong, though there are warning lights blinking on the dashboard, such as lower savings rates as prices rise and consumers maintain their current lifestyles.

鈥淭his is the reason we have such a slow forecast for GDP growth,鈥� Wobbekind said. 鈥淲e just don鈥檛 see how the consumer can continue to do this.鈥� Wobbekind said BRD鈥檚 estimate of 0.6 percent GDP growth actually is optimistic among forecasters.

• Demographics are posing interesting long-term challenges. The forecast was co-presented by Elizabeth Garner, state demographer, who noted 2021 offered the slowest population growth seen in three decades, though net migration and births are rebounding slightly.听

鈥淐olorado is still one of the youngest states in the nation, but the 65-plus demographic is the fastest-growing age group in the state,鈥� she said.听

• Construction is struggling when it comes to buildings鈥攅specially with the commercial and residential sectors softening鈥攂ut infrastructure projects will fuel major gains, especially owing to the federal Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, an uptick in state spending on roads, bridges and utilities. Nonbuilding construction will spike to a $4.4 billion sector next year, a 10 percent gain on a record 2022, Garner said.听

Water, water anywhere?

The agriculture industry has a presence in every Colorado county, but it鈥檚 relatively small in urban areas. However, the industry got outsized attention during the forecast. Wobbekind said the industry had a record year for prices in 2022, but also for expenses. The war in Ukraine and ongoing drought have furthered the volatility that has troubled this sector since 2020.听

Those themes carried over into a breakout panel discussion on drought and the economy, which made the case that business needs to become a leader in rethinking water use, in agriculture and beyond. The discussion quickly turned to how water is allocated, on farms and to cities, and how that needs to change in the face of intense drought.听

鈥淭here鈥檚 going to be reallocations across these different sectors. It鈥檚 not going to look pretty,鈥� said Robert Hobbins, a sustainability scientist and professor at SM调教所 Denver Business School. 鈥淏ut I think we鈥檙e going have opportunities to do things in a more innovative and collaborative fashion鈥� alongside industry.

A need for business to lead

In moderating the water panel discussion, Patricia Limerick, a history professor at SM调教所 Boulder, noted the last 150 years in the American West has been a time of improbable comfort in an unforgiving environment, thanks to engineering innovations. 听

鈥淭here鈥檚 plenty of evidence that era is winding down,鈥� she said. 鈥淏usiness people can lead in this era鈥攁nd if you take this up, you are positioned to lead and prosper, because you bring assets to this challenge,鈥� including marketing and social norming tools, civic engagement and credibility, and so on. 听

Water may not feel quite as urgent as inflation or supply chains, but in the forecast, Wobbekind noted that Colorado鈥檚 municipalities are growing increasingly concerned about access to water. He noted that today, more than half of municipalities are at least slightly concerned about meeting water needs five years from now, 鈥渂ut that goes to almost 75 percent if you look 10 years out, and 80 percent if you look 20 years down the road.鈥澨�

The forecast also included a keynote panel on emerging technologies鈥攊ncluding quantum computing, aerospace and robotics鈥攁nd their potential impacts on business, as well as industry breakouts on entrepreneurship and real estate and finance.

Why Leeds听 Business Research Division听 Full report: BEOF 2023